Portfolio360 Intelligence Brief

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Executive Portfolio Summary

Q1 2026 · Week 5 of 13

Your Q1 delivery commitment is at risk. Two external factors emerged this week that change your timeline math, and one "green" project is showing early warning signs visible only when multiple data sources are cross-referenced.

Q1 Commitment

4 of 6

projects on track to deliver

Portfolio Risk Exposure

$4.2M

potential cost if risks materialize

Confidence Gaps Found

4 projects

reporting green, data says otherwise

Early Detection Value

~$2.8M

estimated savings from early action

The Bottom Line

The OCC moved your compliance deadline up 91 days. Your BSA/AML project plan doesn't reflect this yet. If we don't re-scope this week, we're looking at regulatory penalties starting April 1. Everything else is manageable—this one isn't.

Decisions Needed This Week

1 Approve emergency re-scope of BSA/AML to meet new March 31 deadline

2 Decide which March go-live to protect if we can only land 2 of 3

3 Authorize cross-training for Kevin O'Brien's critical skill set

Detailed Findings

I've analyzed your portfolio this week. Here's what emerges when you connect the data across all your sources.

I found 4 green-reported projects where the data tells a different story, 2 external factors about to impact your timeline, and a resource dependency that could derail your March deliveries.

10 Projects Analyzed Budget & Schedule Data Risk Registers Resource Assignments Milestone Tracking External Intel Feeds

🔴 Needs Your Attention Now

Reported Green, but Four Signals Are Converging in the Wrong Direction

Mobile Wallet Launch

Friday's status shows green — but when you cross-reference schedule, budget, scope, and milestone data, the picture shifts. Confidence score dropped 21 points in two weeks across four independent metrics.

The signals driving the confidence drop ▼

Schedule: Same backlog items carried across 3 consecutive sprints

Budget: 94% spent with 18% of work remaining

Scope: Timeline extended twice since October — original target was Oct 15, now Feb 28

Milestone: Apple Pay certification 3 weeks overdue

Reported Status

🟢 Green

Confidence Score

📉 41%

Based on schedule variance, budget trajectory, scope stability, and risk signals

2 weeks ago

62%

This week

41%

Concern: <40%

Caution: 40-60%

Healthy: 60%+

→ Recommendation

The data says this project needs attention before the status formally changes. Review scope with the team — either the Feb 28 date slips, or something gets cut.

How Portfolio360 Detected This

1. Cross-referenced 4 data sources
Jira velocity, budget actuals, milestone tracker, and sprint reports — each individually looked fine.

2. Identified pattern convergence
Three consecutive sprints carrying same items + budget at 94% + two timeline extensions = compound signal.

3. Compared to PM's status report
Friday's report says "on track." The data says 41% confidence. A human reviewer would need 2–3 hours to connect these dots.

4. Estimated detection advantage
Without this analysis, this gap typically surfaces 4–6 weeks later — when recovery costs 3–5× more.

The Same Risk Has Been On Your Steering Deck for 6 Weeks. Nothing's Changed.

Core Banking Modernization

I read your last 6 steering committee decks and meeting minutes. The vendor middleware delay has appeared every single time with the same action item: "Escalate to vendor executive."

Six weeks. Same slide. Same action. No resolution.

Pattern from steering materials ▼

Dec 15 — Steering Deck, Slide 12

"Vendor delivery at risk — escalation needed"

Jan 5 — Meeting Minutes

Action: Escalate to vendor exec (Owner: Michael)

Jan 19 — Steering Deck, Slide 14

"Vendor delivery at risk — escalation needed"

Feb 2 — Meeting Minutes

Action: Escalate to vendor exec (Owner: Michael) — REPEATED

Why this matters

3 downstream projects are planning against a date that your steering committee has known is at risk for 6 weeks. Payment Hub, API Gateway, and Digital Banking all have dependencies on this middleware. If it slips, they all slip—and none of their PMs know yet.

→ Recommendation

Stop assigning the same action item. Either the escalation happened and failed (need Plan B), or it didn't happen (need to understand why). This Wednesday's steering meeting should not have the same slide again.

🌐 External Intelligence — Things You Don't Know Yet

Your Payment Processor Was Just Acquired. Expect API Changes.

Affects: Payment Hub, Mobile Wallet, Digital Banking

Stripe announced the acquisition of PaymentCo (your processor) yesterday. Based on Stripe's pattern with previous acquisitions, you have 6-9 months before API deprecation notices and 12-18 months before forced migration.

Market Intelligence

Stripe acquisition history:
• Paystack (2020): API deprecated in 14 months
• TaxJar (2021): Forced migration in 11 months
• Bouncer (2022): API deprecated in 9 months

Your Payment Hub just spent 8 months integrating with PaymentCo's API. That work may need to be redone.

→ Recommendation

Add this to risk register immediately. Start abstracting your payment integration now while you have time, not when Stripe sends the deprecation notice. Cost to abstract now: ~$200K. Cost to panic-migrate later: ~$800K+.

OCC Published New Guidance Tuesday. Your Compliance Deadline Just Moved Up.

BSA/AML Compliance System

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released updated BSA/AML examination procedures on Tuesday. Buried on page 47: the implementation timeline for AI-assisted transaction monitoring moved from Q3 to end of Q1.

Your project plan has a June 30 deadline. The new deadline is March 31. Jennifer's team doesn't know yet.

Regulatory Source

OCC Bulletin 2026-04 — Published Feb 1, 2026
"Institutions must implement enhanced transaction monitoring capabilities, including AI-assisted pattern detection, by end of Q1 2026 for Tier 1 institutions..."

Your current project plan misses this by 91 days.

→ Recommendation

Emergency scope review today. What can ship by March 31 vs what gets pushed to Phase 2? Non-compliance penalty: up to $1M/day. The math on adding contractors just changed dramatically.

🟡 Patterns I'm Watching

This Project Shows the Exact Pre-Failure Pattern of Your 2024 Blowup

Data Warehouse Migration

Data Warehouse Migration looks fine on paper. But it's showing the same pattern that Analytics Platform showed 8 weeks before it went 40% over budget:

Pattern comparison ▼

Analytics Platform 2024 (before blowup):
• Timeline extended 2x while budget held ✓ Match
• PM optimism despite flat velocity ✓ Match
• Vendor "confirming" for 3+ weeks ✓ Match
• Development activity declining 4 weeks straight ✓ Match

Data Warehouse Today:
• Code commits: 12 → 8 → 5 → 3 (declining)
• Agile cards completed: 15 → 11 → 7 → 4 (declining)
• Snowflake "confirming access" for 22 days
• Status report: "On track with minor risks"

Industry Benchmark

Cloud data warehouse migrations for organizations your size typically take 14-18 months. You've planned 9 months. Only 23% of similar projects complete within planned timeline when initial scope matches yours.

→ Recommendation

Don't wait for this to go red. Ask Amy directly: "What's really going on?" The pattern says she's either stuck or about to tell you she's stuck. Better to know now.

Kevin O'Brien Is Your Single Point of Failure. If He Gets Sick, March Collapses.

Affects: Core Banking, Payment Hub, API Gateway, Digital Banking

I mapped your resource dependencies. Kevin is assigned to 4 projects and is the only person who understands ISO 20022 payment message formats. There's no backup trained.

Dependency analysis ▼

Kevin's assignments:
• Core Banking: Integration lead (critical path)
• Payment Hub: ISO 20022 SME (only one)
• API Gateway: Security reviewer (blocking)
• Digital Banking: Payment consultant

Calendar analysis:
• Meetings this week: 47 hours
• Focus time available: 6 hours
• Last code review completed: 8 days ago

→ Recommendation

You have 3 weeks to cross-train someone on payment message formats. After that, you're betting the quarter on Kevin not getting the flu. Start the knowledge transfer this week—even 2 hours of documentation reduces your bus factor risk.

✅ Confirmed Working — Signal Matches Status

API Gateway Is Actually Fine. Every Signal Confirms It.

API Gateway Platform

When a project says green and every signal confirms it — schedule on track, budget healthy, milestones hitting, risk count stable — that's worth calling out. It's rarer than you'd think.

Verification signals ▼

• Confidence score: 78% (stable 4 weeks)
• Development velocity: Steady 25-30 items/week
• Milestone hit rate: 100% last 6 milestones
• Budget: On track, 89% spent at 89% complete
• Risk count: Stable at 2, both low severity

Also notable: Tom documented everything. When he moves to the next project, you won't have a knowledge gap. Recognize this—it's rare and worth replicating.

Portfolio at a Glance

Confirmed Healthy

Watch Closely

Action Required

$118M

Portfolio Budget

Status reports show 7 green, 2 yellow, 1 red.
Cross-source analysis tells a different story: 3 confirmed healthy, 4 need a closer look.

Executive Portfolio Summary

Q1 2026 · Week 5 of 13

Two "green" clinical projects are diverging from their data. An FDA clearance delay is creating downstream risk across your care delivery timeline, and physician adoption metrics on one platform are trending in the wrong direction.

Q1 Commitment

3 of 5

projects on track to deliver

Portfolio Risk Exposure

$3.1M

potential cost if risks materialize

Confidence Gaps Found

2 projects

reporting green, data says otherwise

Early Detection Value

~$1.9M

estimated savings from early action

The Bottom Line

Clinical Decision Support has burned 88% of its budget with 22% of work remaining. The AI recommendation engine hasn't cleared FDA validation yet, and physician adoption on Telemedicine is stalling at 34%. Both projects report green. Neither should.

Decisions Needed This Week

1 Decide whether to pause Clinical Decision Support pending FDA clearance or continue at risk

2 Approve physician engagement plan for Telemedicine — adoption curve is flattening

3 Review HIPAA compliance gap in Patient Data Lake before audit window opens

Detailed Findings

I've analyzed your portfolio this week. Here's what emerges when you connect the data across all your sources.

I found 2 green-reported projects where the data tells a different story, an FDA regulatory risk affecting your clinical AI timeline, and a physician adoption pattern that needs intervention.

5 Projects Analyzed Budget & Schedule Data Clinical Milestone Tracking Regulatory Filings Adoption Metrics External Intel Feeds

🔴 Needs Your Attention Now

Reported Green, but Budget and Regulatory Signals Are Converging

Clinical Decision Support

This project reports green — but it has consumed 88% of its $12.8M budget with 22% of deliverables remaining, and the FDA validation milestone has no confirmed date. When you cross-reference these independently, the compound risk is significant.

The signals driving the confidence drop ▼

Budget: $11.2M spent of $12.8M (88%) with 22% of work outstanding

Forecast: Current trajectory projects $14.5M total cost — $1.7M over budget

Regulatory: FDA clearance for AI recommendation engine not yet submitted

Schedule: 78% complete vs 85% planned — 7-point gap widening

Reported Status

🟢 Green

Confidence Score

📉 32%

Based on schedule variance, budget trajectory, regulatory readiness, and risk signals

2 weeks ago

48%

This week

32%

Concern: <40%

Caution: 40-60%

Healthy: 60%+

→ Recommendation

This project needs a go/no-go decision before more budget is consumed. Either secure a firm FDA submission timeline this week, or pause non-essential work streams until the regulatory path is clear.

How Portfolio360 Detected This

1. Cross-referenced budget + schedule
88% budget consumed at 78% completion. Each source looked manageable alone — together they show an accelerating gap.

2. Flagged regulatory dependency
FDA clearance has no confirmed submission date, but 3 downstream milestones depend on it. Regulatory feeds surfaced this gap.

3. Compared to PM's status report
Weekly report says "on track with minor delays." The data says 32% confidence and a $1.7M forecast overrun.

4. Estimated intervention window
At current burn rate, budget exhaustion in ~5 weeks. Decisions made now save an estimated $1.2M vs. waiting for formal escalation.

Physician Adoption Has Flatlined at 34%. The Platform Works — the Change Management Doesn't.

Telemedicine Platform

Telemedicine reports green at 82% technical completion. But adoption metrics tell a different story: only 34% of eligible physicians have conducted a virtual visit, and the growth curve has been flat for 3 weeks. A technically complete platform with 34% adoption is a $8.5M underperforming asset.

The signals driving the confidence drop ▼

Adoption: 34% physician adoption — flat for 3 consecutive weeks

Budget: 80% spent ($6.8M of $8.5M) with go-live approaching

Forecast: Trending to $8.9M — $400K over budget

Risk: No physician engagement plan in current sprint backlog

Reported Status

🟢 Green

Confidence Score

📉 44%

→ Recommendation

Technical delivery is not the bottleneck — physician buy-in is. Approve a dedicated change management sprint before go-live, or this platform launches to an empty waiting room.

🟣 External Factors Emerging

FDA Published Updated AI/ML Guidance Last Week. Your Clinical Decision Support Timeline Just Changed.

Affects: Clinical Decision Support, Epic EHR Upgrade

The FDA's updated guidance on AI/ML-based Software as a Medical Device (SaMD) introduces new validation requirements for clinical recommendation engines. Your Clinical Decision Support system falls squarely in Category III, which requires a more rigorous pre-market review than previously planned.

Estimated impact: 60-90 day extension to your regulatory timeline.

→ Recommendation

Engage regulatory counsel this week to assess the new Category III requirements. If the 60-90 day estimate holds, the Clinical Decision Support go-live needs to shift from Q2 to Q3.

Your EHR Vendor Just Announced a Major API Migration. Every Integration Is Affected.

Affects: Epic EHR Upgrade, Patient Data Lake, Revenue Cycle

Epic's v2025.2 release includes a breaking change to the FHIR R4 API that Patient Data Lake and Revenue Cycle both depend on. The migration deadline is June 30. Three of your five projects have integration dependencies on the current API.

→ Recommendation

Map all API dependencies across the portfolio this week. Prioritize Patient Data Lake's integration — it has the longest migration path.

🟡 Watch Closely

HIPAA Compliance Audit Window Opens in 6 Weeks. Patient Data Lake Has a Gap.

Patient Data Lake

Patient Data Lake is technically healthy at 71% confidence, but the HIPAA risk register shows a data residency finding that hasn't been remediated. With the compliance audit window opening March 15, this needs attention now — not because the project is failing, but because the regulatory clock is ticking.

→ Recommendation

Schedule a HIPAA readiness review for Patient Data Lake before March 1. The finding is likely a 2-week fix, but only if started now.

🟢 Confirmed Healthy

Epic EHR Upgrade Is Tracking Exactly as Planned. Every Signal Confirms It.

Epic EHR Upgrade

76% confidence, stable trend, 45% complete against 44% planned, budget tracking within 1%. Dr. Foster's team is executing cleanly. This is what a healthy $32M program looks like when the data and the status report agree.

Portfolio at a Glance

Confirmed Healthy

Watch Closely

Action Required

$73.9M

Portfolio Budget

Status reports show 4 green, 1 yellow.
Cross-source analysis tells a different story: 2 confirmed healthy, 2 need a closer look.

What's hiding in your portfolio?

You just saw what Portfolio360 found in synthetic data. Imagine what it finds in yours — the watermelon projects, the stale risks, the regulatory signals your team hasn't seen yet.

Currently onboarding design partners · Launch Q4 2026